COVID-19 ….the numbers

Covid-19 has hit us hard, but let us look at the numbers carefully

As of the 24th March 2019, the outbreak is still on the rise in all parts of the world except China. This is a country that has fought COVID-19 hard and there are no more new cases in the country. But China is not out of it though, they are still in lock down and it is not clear what the way forward is – how to step out again, will it lead to another wave? This is untested waters.

The outbreak is now at its peak in Europe. The picture in Africa is different from that of China and Europe. At the moment, although almost every country in Africa has reported a case, only a hand full have been hit hard: Egypt (402 cases and 20 deaths, Algeria (264 cases and 19 deaths) and South Africa (709 cases, no deaths). At the moment Kenya has reported 25 cases and no deaths.

https://www.africa-newsroom.com/press/source/africa-centres-for-disease-control-and-prevention-africa-cdc

Another way of looking at this is comparing the numbers coming from the continent of Africa and that from the country that is currently carrying the highest burden of deaths from this virus – Italy.

The outbreak has peaked in Italy and the number of new cases is declining so it is hoped that things will get better now. However, the deaths continue. Just yesterday, 24th March, there were 743 COVID-19 deaths, 12 times the deaths in the whole of Africa. It is a shocking number of deaths.

I am not writing this to encourage us to get smug…. things aren’t that great because the number of cases is rising pretty steeply on the continent. However, we do need to have some perspective

For Africa, we would be lying to ourselves if we do not assume that this is just a start. Hopefully, it will not peak as much as other countries due to the much younger population demographic but the public health approach will be the same. In African countries with COVID-19, citizens have been asked to practice social distancing. But if you look at China and now Europe, there was not much time to test the effectiveness of social distancing. Faced with the option of watching people die, the directive changed. The virus appears to be stemmed through using this one directive…

STAY AT HOME

As much as is possible, work from home, STAY AT HOME. Leave the house to shop for food or medicine. To get some sun and exercise (if you are allowed that!) but really if you can, just stay at home. This is the time to catch up on house repairs, that TV series you have been dying to watch. …..

Governments are making it easier by closing all leisure places. So no bars or restaurants open, no church, no shopping…. it does not sound exciting – but it will save lives.

HOWEVER, the STAY AT HOME directive is easier for middle class families with secure jobs, a regular income unaffected by staying at home.

There are those who are in a really difficult situation. If they do not go out to work, their kids will not eat. Malnutrition is not a textbook issue but a real risk, what will be done for this group?

As we stop construction work and all other forms of casual labor – how are workers who rely on that pay for the day survive?

East Africa is coping not just with COVID-19 but a locust invasion and the serious likelihood of famine. The rains came when they were not expected and they caused more destruction than harvest. The ‘normal’ rains are about to come – hopefully. Farms have to be tended to, workers have to get out there to work. Africa relies heavily on raid-fed agriculture and without it, we shall face serious food shortages.

COVID-19 has chosen the worst time to visit the continent. Governments have to think unblinkingly about the issues at stake here.

The best advice is to stay at home – but what will the citizens eat?

Governments need to look at food stores and on behalf of their vulnerable citizens, start to lay out plans. People in dire need have to be reassured ….its only fair to let them know that they are being thought about. To know that there is enough for when the going is hard – to start thinking of a voucher system that is not open to abuse. To start gathering plans.